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Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
http://www.ferrousmoon.com:80/forums/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=1845		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  sentinel [Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Yeah, ok, yeasterday I was alone in the channel, just watching the tumbleweed pass by, and somebody named "janah" entered the channel.
(16/7/2009 00:44:40) janah [~janah@201-95-131-119.dsl.telesp.net.br] entrou na sala.
(00:44:50) janah: hi
(00:44:53) Sentinel: 'morning
(00:45:32) janah: .....you from??....
(00:45:37) Sentinel: brazil
(00:45:39) Sentinel: u?
(00:45:46) janah: too....
(00:45:52) Sentinel: lol
(00:45:55) Sentinel: :P
(00:46:16) janah: tc in portuguese?
(00:46:20) Sentinel: private
(00:46:40) Sentinel: open private
(00:47:05) janah: i don't know
(00:47:20) Sentinel: double clik my name on the list
(00:47:37) janah: pronto!!
(00:47:58) Sentinel: now change to my tab
(00:48:15) Sentinel: não apareceu uma aba com o meu nome?
(00:48:35) janah: aeeeeeeee....ele tk em portugueiss.....
(00:48:44) Sentinel: lol

So, in other words, this person was from BRAZIL. This amazed me. Janah then asked me to speak in portugues (tc = teclar = chat over the internet in portuguese), and then I had to explain in portuguese for janah to understand...

Then, in private, I ended up finding out that janah was a GIRL. After all, janah was short from Janaína (Janaine in portuguese). I was pretty sure about that, the way she talked and all, was pretty convincing. We had a nice chat, and she logged out. Turns out she got tired of MSN, so she looked for chatting tools over the internet and found an IRC client. She then got on the first network she saw, and clicked on a random channel. Ended up being: Onlink!


For TL:DRs - a BRAZILLIAN GIRL on the ONLINK CHANNEL. What are the fucking chances? LOL.
Author:  Miah [Thu Jul 16, 2009 12:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Not very high, I would wager.

If it's true. I have reservations.
Author:  Soldier of Light [Thu Jul 16, 2009 12:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
To get the chances... you'd need to know the number of brazilian girls with IRC access.
Author:  DaFranker [Thu Jul 16, 2009 1:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Alright, here goes:

Number of Internet users worldwide: Around 1 150 000 000 (est. 1,018,057,389 in 2005)

Number of Brazilian Internet users: Around 55 000 000 (est. 50 000 000 in 2007)
Number of female Brazilian Internet users: Around 27 000 000 (according to worldwide gender-repartition of Internet usage - no stats found for Brazil specifically)

Crude calculation: 27 000 000 / 1 150 000 000 = 2,3% chances that each *new* user that enters the channel is a Brazilian woman.

If you weight in age and interest odds, that figure will go down. Around 18 000 000 would be in the age groups you'd expect for someone who "gets bored of MSN and goes to get IRC and join a random channel".

However, if you try to add in more factors like that, you also have to add in other, more complex factors such as language of internet usage, amount of people total within age and interest group to use IRC in such a way, etc. etc.

Basically, 2,3% is as close an odd calculation as you'll get without complex statistical analysis and (most likely) elaborate scientific studies.

Take this with a truckload of salt bags, though. It would naturally be impossible to calculate precise odds without elaborate quantum-level calculations of the type "odds that this person will today get IRC and randomly end up in the Onlink channel" for all brazilian female internet users that use MSN.

P.S.: I like taking rhetorical questions and giving actual answers to them just for fun. In case you hadn't noticed.
Author:  sentinel [Thu Jul 16, 2009 8:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Quote:
P.S.: I like taking rhetorical questions and giving actual answers to them just for fun. In case you hadn't noticed.
For just fun, this was quite elaborate

good answer, sir :classy:

on a wild guess, i'ld say the chances are of about 0/1 (?)
Author:  FinalWarrior [Thu Jul 16, 2009 9:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
The chances are obviously 0/0. *nod*

-- Griffinhart
Author:  DaFranker [Thu Jul 16, 2009 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
0/1 = 0, which is impossible in a situation of odds according to quantum law (barring meta-restricting rules).

I'd be more inclined to say (∞^(1/2))/∞... but then that's only fun to think about, and actually using such figures is counter-productive.

I also derive entertainment from discovering random tidbits of lore and knowledge. Hence "fun".

Also, Mr. FinalWarrior, that's a bit of an understatement. It's just like saying that it is a certain percentage of chances that exists. For those not mathematically-fluent, 0/0 is an undefined quantity which can basically represent any number whatsoever. For a simple proof, try: 0/0 = x/1 with the cross multiplication method. See? 0/0 can equal pretty much anything you want.
Author:  skyblownet [Thu Jul 16, 2009 1:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
There is a 50% chance. She joins, or doesn't

Math for lazy people !
Author:  sentinel [Thu Jul 16, 2009 6:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Quote:
There is a 50% chance. She joins, or doesn't

Math for lazy people !

ermmmm....
Author:  prophile [Fri Jul 17, 2009 6:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Take that, statistics as we know it!
Author:  eddieringle [Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
I will be taking FST (Functions-Statistics-Trigonometry) this coming year, maybe after that my head will begin to stop hurting when I read these smart-people posts. :-P
Author:  DaFranker [Mon Jul 20, 2009 3:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Quote:
I will be taking FST (Functions-Statistics-Trigonometry) this coming year, maybe after that my head will begin to stop hurting when I read these smart-people posts. :-P
No, it won't. When you read these posts, the only difference is that now you'll understand them for the most part, but your head will still hurt because it'll also remind you of everything else that comes with it and all the painful other things you've learned. If anything, the pain is a little worse ;)
Author:  FinalWarrior [Mon Jul 20, 2009 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Feh @ statistics. Didn't take the class - more into calculus, anyhow.

-- Griffinhart
Author:  sentinel [Mon Jul 20, 2009 4:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
Quote:
Feh @ statistics. Didn't take the class - more into calculus, anyhow.

-- Griffinhart
Calculus is awesome! :)
Author:  mackaybre [Thu Jul 23, 2009 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Someone, please, calculate the CHANCES?
The Internet:

Where Men are Men, Girls are Men, and Children are Police Officers trying to catch pedophiles.
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